As is always the case following the winter holiday period an eerie calm pervades in the F1 world. We await news on the fate of the Honda team – the latest is that Carlos Slim, wealthy Mexican industrialist, is not in the running leaving, apparently, Prodrive and continued rumours of Hyundai-Kia interest – and whether we will see 20 cars on the grid come the first race in Australia.
Jenson Button stands to be the loser in all of this with no less than Bernie Ecclestone suggesting the Englishman take a year off; this is an ominous comment and suggests that Ecclestone is not involved in the negotiations to keep Honda on the grid. Of course, Button is far from the sole loser as somewhere in the region of 700 people are involved in the team; with the cost cutting routine in full flow now it will be much more difficult for those individuals to find employment in the F1 world as teams cut back on their testing teams.
One man who is unlikely to find himself unemployed in the event of no buyer coming forward is Ross Brawn, a man widely regarded as very much the architect of the Schumacher-Ferrari machine and one who has great faith in the new design that is ready to be put into production at the Brackley factory right now.
It is difficult to forecast where Brawn would go but it also hard to envisage that he has not had any number of teams knocking on his door already; personally I can see him fitting in very nicely at McLaren, something that the Ferrari faithful may find rather distasteful.
Back to the cost cutting measures and one particular avenue has met with some concern among fans. It would seem that the immediate ban on in-season testing is hard to fathom; many have proposed that this means a car that starts the season on the back foot will remain there.
While there is some merit in this the fact remains that teams only need to test for thousands of miles for one reason – because their rivals do it. The quest for a tenth of a second here and there has no benefit to us – the fans- and costs inordinate amounts of money. In addition, the smaller teams have no way of affording the all-inclusive testing programmes of the bigger outfits, but with no teams able to gain an advantage by running huge mileages logic dictates that Force India, for instance, will not fall as far behind as the year progresses.
Of course this is all supposition; the engineers in F1 are clever men (and women) and will be looking to find ways around the testing ban. Simulators are used by all teams now – to great effect – and will continue to be so. What is true, however, is that the removal of in-season testing represents a cost saving of a considerable amount and, as such, was an essential step.
Further steps have been taken – the reduction in wind tunnel usage and extension of the engine life from two to three races, coupled with a reduced rev limit – that will, in essence, have very little impact on the sport from the fans point of view but add to the cost saving initiative; in addition, and perhaps most important of all, the teams have agreed to a supply of affordable engines that has staved off the threatened ‘standard’ engine for all. That we have engines which will, in truth, be very similar in performance is not the point; a Ferrari with a Cosworth engine was simply never going to happen.
Beyond 2009 the suggestion is to impose further rule changes – one that is somewhat controversial is the proposal to ban refuelling (a thumbs up from this writer) – but the goalposts will undoubtedly move between now and then; we wait to see how the hitherto impressive FOTA collective approaches the future.
It is almost easy to forget the major new changes to the 2009 cars – the aerodynamic revolution, the introduction of the controversial KERS device – in the rush to analyse the cost cutting measures, and it has to be said that introducing an expensive innovation such as KERS at a time when costs are being slashed strikes on as very odd indeed; it is mooted, therefore, that the system may well be standardised before it becomes compulsory in 2010.
So to the racing; what can we expect?
More than one driver has expressed concern that the new regulations will lead to an increase in accidents. They point to the new wider front wings as being particularly vulnerable, and to the new regulations (hopefully) allowing more wheel to wheel action. Some of the taller drivers have also voiced their concern that the heavy KERS device will hinder their ability to balance a car in comparison to their lighter competitors.
This is a view that has met with agreement in most quarters, but the true effect is yet to be seen. Further, a number of teams have already commented that they will not be beginning the season with the KERS advice, and are uncommitted as to when they will take the plunge.
There is a growing belief that the new season will provide closer competition than 2008, a year in which McLaren and Ferrari had things to themselves and BMW were only challenged by a late surge from Renault.
It is well known and accepted that BMW-Sauber are ahead of the pack with regards to KERS and this could give them a distinct advantage – particularly over Ferrari who are said to be struggling with their package – in the early races. An interesting factor is the re-introduction of slick tyres, something that is believed will benefit those drivers who suffered from problems in that area last year.
If, as many believe, the year will begin with less of a gap between the teams we can also expect Renault – who were firing on all cylinders at the end of the year and have a highly motivated Fernando Alonso at the wheel – to be in the mix, and Toyota made definite strides forward last year as the fruits of their major internal re-organisation began to show. With two fine drivers – the perennially under-rated Jarno Trulli and an improving and impressive Timo Glock – Toyota could well be one to watch in the early season.
McLaren are likely to be in the mix – but then we knew that – and it will be interesting indeed to see how Force India benefit from running a car that will be, in all but name, an MP4-24 – at least from the middle to the back. The prospect of Giancarlo Fisichella and Adrian Sutil – both, in my eyes, grossly under-rated – in what should be a much better package than the 2008 car is enticing indeed, and I expect them to be points scorers on a regular basis.
Williams enter another year as the valiant underdogs, and that is the best we can expect from this ever-popular team these days. There is nothing wrong with the Toyota engine, the drivers – Nico Rosberg and Kazuki Nakajima – both show plenty speed coupled with erratic tendencies, and the team personnel are of the highest order. It is difficult to know what to expect of Williams, but another year of sporadic results is perhaps the logical conclusion.
The Red Bull camp is in a state of some turmoil at the moment with the new car not due until much later than the opposition. This is – it must be said – typical Adrian Newey, a man who is a perfectionist without equal. It is worrying, though, that the team will once again begin the season with catching up to do, and with Mark Webber recovering from his recent injuries much of the winter programme is on the shoulders of young Sebastian Vettel. The young German is, as we all know, an outstanding talent, and it is a hotly anticipated pairing that lines up in the Red Bull-Renault camp this year.
Toro Rosso have, as yet, not decided on their driver line up although it is a poorly kept secret that Sebastien Buemi will be in one of the cars. I believe the second will be driven by Takuma Sato, a welcome return for the popular Japanese that will see Sebastien Bourdais, perhaps unfairly, jettisoned in favour of increased fizzy drinks sales in the Far East.
Should Honda be resurrected – and I believe that it will be – it will be interesting to see in what form it appears, as running a Honda engine is not on the agenda. It is said that Ross Brawn has an option on the Ferrari supply no longer needed by Force India, but this – like everything else – is pure supposition. We expect some news in the coming week with regard to the future of the team.
My readers will, of course, be looking for predictions from me, but with no relevant testing to go on things are very much up in the air. I expect McLaren and Ferrari to be at the forefront, and also that Kimi Raikkonen will return to his front running form, and I expect both BMW and Toyota to make strides forward.
I am willing to bet with anyone wanting to take it up that Nick Heidfeld wins the opening race; from then on it’s anybody’s guess!
Written by Steve Turnbull on Sun, 04 Jan 2009 12:03:27
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