State of affairs

An enforced absence from the day-to-day news and views – as I have endured lately – gives one a wider view of the rumour mill, one unencumbered by contradiction as the more obvious stand out. It also brings a fresh perspective on the many political wrangling that encompass the sport, and the technical changes that are a weekly occurrence in the fast moving environment that is Formula One.

Much, perhaps too much, has been written about Max Mosley of late, and much of the advent of KERS and the attendant fire and electrocution risk, but coming back to the game simply ferments interest in the more vital elements – the races, the cars, and far from least, the drivers.

I have chosen to put aside a treatise on KERS for now, and will refrain from discussing the FIA President’s sexual preferences, for July 31st has just been and gone, and that date is the traditional one on which contractual options expire or kick in. The market, as they say, is in full swing, so let’s have a look at how things stand.

We can get Red Bull Racing out of the way first of all, as there Mark Webber will be joined by Sebastian Vettel for 2009, and we know that McLaren Mercedes will again run Lewis Hamilton and Heikki Kovalainen. Nico Rosberg has told us he will stay at Williams for next year, and Timo Glock is about to be given a new contract by Toyota following his impressive run in Hungary.

Drivers with contracts – that we know of – include Ferrari duo Kimi Raikkonen and Felipe Massa, Nick Heidfeld at BMW, Jarno Trulli at Toyota, and possibly Adrian Sutil at Force India – the rest are unknown, or unsure.

What is clear is that the top end of the market for next season is waiting on a number of these unknowns – primarily the fate of Fernando Alonso and Robert Kubica – and with a large added dose of uncertainty concerning Raikkonen and, to a lesser extent, Massa.

Kimi Raikkonen has been, in the eyes of many, something of a disappointment at Maranello. The World Champion he may be, but his team mate has easily matched him race for race, and the body language of a man at ease is not what one perceives of the Finn these days.

Rumours are growing that Raikkonen has had enough of F1 and it’s attendant pressure, and will quit at the end of this year, and it is said in some quarters that this would be welcomed by the team, who feel that he has little more to give in his current state of mind. Welcome it they may, too, for coupled with the long lived tale that Alonso has signed a provisional agreement to go to Maranello – some say he did so late last year – and the recent sightings of him in the Swiss town of Lugano, where Ferrari’s lawyers are based (Joe Saward, writing on Grandprix.com, covers this story) one can easily put two and two together and come to a reasonable conclusion.

Stories that Honda are ready to offer Alonso a single year contract read oddly in the light of recent comments by Ross Brawn that both Rubens Barrichello and Jenson Button will remain at the team next year, as Brawn is a stickler for stability, and is an avowed fan of both the Brazilian and the Englishman. With Honda widely expected to be at the forefront when it comes to KERS technology, and with things moving apace for 2009, it would be a strange decision to bring in a driver knowing he was there as a stop-gap, even if that driver were Alonso.

In the eyes of this writer, and from what I have heard of late, I would not bet my house on Raikkonen quitting and Alonso taking his place, but I would give it very low odds if I were offered a wager. Indeed, Raikkonen retiring may well be the get-out clause that Felipe Massa needs to stay at Maranello, although should he consistently perform as he did in Hungary, they need no excuse to keep him.

With McLaren accounted for, the third team – BMW – are far from such. Robert Kubica is a serious talent, that we know, and Nick Heidfeld remains highly regarded despite having a troubled if quietly successful season so far. As we know, it is Nick who has a contract, and Robert who does not.

The word on the street is that the team has taken up an option on Kubica for next year, and one would see no reason why they would not. The driver, however, has been vocal in his criticism of the Hinwil outfit’s apparent inability to keep up development on a par with McLaren and Ferrari. Kubica’s options are limited, however, for the good money is on Ferrari taking Alonso should a drive become – or have already become – available. No move for Kubica yet, then.

And Heidfeld? Mario Theissen is known to have asked his drivers not to discuss their contractual situation, although Nick recently stated he was ‘relaxed’ about his immediate future. All indicators point towards the German staying put as his contract allows, as the alternatives do not look to be better at the moment.

Jarno Trulli has done enough in what has arguably been his finest season so far to remain at Toyota, and Timo Glock has a new contract in hand, and everything points to the Honda drivers staying put, while Force India appear set to keep Adrian Sutil, and would be well advised to retain Giancarlo Fisichella, although that remains to be seen.

That leaves Renault, Scuderia Toro Rosso, and Williams.

The former may be resigned to losing their star driver, as we have already discussed Alonso’s options, but will also be reassured that Nelson Piquet Jnr appears to have found his confidence, and with it his form. The young Brazilian is clearly quick – we know that from his GP2 days when he gave Hamilton a run for his money – but had, up until Germany, endured a torrid run of results. The second place at Hockenheim gave him the boost he needed, and his Hungarian GP was another decent outing. It remains to be seen whether they will retain him, but he must figure strongly in their thinking.

To partner Piquet we may need to look to GP2 again, and to Renault’s test drivers of late Romain Grosjean and Lucas di Grassi. To be honest I favour the latter, but then the likes of Anthony Davidson and Takuma Sato – Super Aguri refugees both – remain available, and the Japanese in particular is said to come with a nice bundle of cash. Renault is one to watch, and perhaps the team of greatest uncertainty for the coming year.

Toro Rosso have more on their plate than driver choices, with parents Red Bull giving help for 2009 but not beyond and Gerhard Berger and Franz Tost in a quandary having already lost Sebastian Vettel to Red Bull. The second driver – Champ Car ace Sebastien Bourdais – has been all but invisible this year, and has frequently seemed out of his depth. Berger has hinted at keeping the Frenchman, but that may be out of lack of an alternative rather than being impressed, as team personnel have also intimated that Bourdais needs ‘more speed’. That is, I would say, the most damning criticism of a racing driver there can be.

Bruno Senna, second in the GP2 series at the moment, keeps cropping up in relation to the STR seat, and also at Williams, our final team.

Williams has been the disappointment of the season for me, a team who can not be excused on financial grounds as they are well supported, or technical as they know the ropes and have a fine Toyota motor in the back, but have simply under-performed drastically. If the team is to survive this has to be addressed quickly.

Nico Rosberg is staying, and while Kazuki Nakajima has not set the world alight he has been there or thereabouts on the pace of Rosberg. He also has the backing of Toyota, but with the likes of Nico Hulkenberg, Grosjean and Di Grassi, Senna and others on the fringe that may not be enough.

In general, it remains to be seen how these latter seats will pan out, but teams would be wise not to ignore the likes of Giorgio Pantano, already with F1 experience and impressing this year in GP2, and Pastor Maldonado, another GP2 star this year, in their final assessment.

My final word is to say that I am leaning towards Raikkonen retiring, and Alonso taking his place, but until that happens we must wait for the wheels to begin moving at any pace.

At this point last year, I remind you, my assessment was wildly wrong. It may well be again!



Written by Steve Turnbull on Tue, 05 Aug 2008 09:54:14