The retirement of Michael Schumacher could easily have left a gaping hole in the driver ranks and, to some, has done so, but there is a notable shift towards ‘new’ young talent, with a definite flavour of the end of one era and the beginning of another.
Indeed Ron Dennis’ recent comments regarding the ‘plateau’ that many of the current field have reached seem to be the opinion of more than just the McLaren supremo.
A number of drivers have been in the game for nigh on – or more than – a decade without, in truth, delivering the results that their early careers promised:
Rubens Barrichello, Jarno Trulli, Ralf Schumacher, Giancarlo Fisichella, Nick Heidfeld, David Coulthard, Jenson Button and Takuma Sato – all drivers who came to F1 in high regard, and all drivers who, for one reason or another, have had a chance to shine and, just possibly, may be eclipsed by the youngsters waiting in the wings.
I foresee a flurry of mail asking why I have included Jenson Button in that list, and rightly so, but the fact remains that the Englishman has yet to capitalise fully on the acknowledged talent that he possesses even if, like many others, circumstance has worked against him.
That list of names is by no means a ‘who’s out at the end of 2007’ forecast, but I think we can assume that at least half of those named above are nearing the end of their useful life in F1.
I would also expect to be questioned over the omission of a couple of names – in particular Mark Webber. I feel we must, however, give credit to the popular Australian as he has yet to race a car equal to his ability, and in 2007, with a Renault-engined Adrian Newey designed Red Bull at his disposal, he is being given what must amount to another chance.
Another chance is a recurring theme when looking at the 2007 line up, along with a niggling suspicion that for a few it could be a last chance, too. The primary interest for the coming months remains, it has to be said, on the ‘first chance’ brigade, the new kids on the F1 block. So let’s start by looking at the fresh talent.
Where better to begin than with the two ‘big’ new stars for 2007 – Heikki Kovalainen and Lewis Hamilton.
The Finn, Kovalainen, will go to Australia in March with a number of points in his favour.
First, an undisputed talent and often breathtaking speed, coupled with an entire season – 2006 – spent testing with the Renault team, and the added advantages of the double world champion team behind him plus a team mate – Fisichella - who is quite clearly on the back foot.
Indeed, many are of the belief that Renault have shot themselves in the foot, so to speak, by entering 2007 without a ‘top drawer’ driver (the question of why they chose Fisichella over the available Webber remains), with Fisichella’s last two seasons having been mediocre in comparison to the title winning Fernando Alonso.
It is fair to say that, should the youngster establish an upper hand of Fisichella in the early stages of the season, the Italians F1 career will be over at the end of the year. Giancarlo needs to up his game, and quickly, if he is to overcome the challenge that he faces, and it is entirely possible that, should the Renault remain competitive, Kovalainen could be about to become the first debut winner since 1961.
Lewis Hamilton enters F1 in an entirely different scenario. The first ‘rookie’ to race for McLaren since Jan Magnussen stood in for an injured Mika Hakkinen at Aida almost decade and a half ago, it would seem that the weight of expectation is heavy on the Englishman’s shoulders. While Kovalainen has a years experience within the team and environment, Hamilton has a matter of months having been confirmed, at the expense of Pedro de la Rosa, late in 2006.
Hamilton’s credentials are impeccable – no-one is going to argue that he is a very talented racing driver – but success in F1 does not automatically follow from such in the lower formulae (ask the aforementioned Magnussen, for instance.)
Additionally, to begin ones F1 career at Mclaren, alongside the reigning World Champion, could work in one of two ways: should Alonso positively eclipse Hamilton people will be wondering what all the fuss was about, but should Hamilton – just occasionally – match or beat the master, the outlook can only be positive.
Hard to predict, especially with the relative lack of performance from McLaren Mercedes over the past season, but the sensible money says Hamilton, and McLaren, will come out of 2006 smelling of roses, and young Lewis with a very bright F1 career ahead of him. I would expect, however, the young Finn in the Renault to steal the limelight in the early season.
Before moving on, a word on the other newcomer, the young German Adrian Sutil who will race for Spyker alongside Christijan Albers.
Sutil has a bright career behind him and, in the unashamed opinion of this writer, a bright career ahead of him too. He possesses speed, undoubtedly, and race-craft in the environs he has raced in, too, but he lacks experience.
Of course, a couple of (very impressive) Friday appearances for Midland in 2006 do not an F1 star make, but there is a lot of belief and promise riding with this young man, and his late announcement as a race driver shows commitment of a brave nature from the Spyker team.
Having covered the newcomers it’s time to look at the big question regarding the upcoming season: who is going to win?
Logic dictates the World Champion will come from either Renault, double title holders, or Ferrari, the team who ran them closest this season, with McLaren expected to enter the mix by many observers.
As we have talked about Renault’s perceived ‘weak’ driver line up, and Mclarens need to claw back a deficit, the onus is thus on Ferrari. And, therefore, on Kimi Raikkonen who moves to Maranello.
Much has been made of the differences between the work ethic of Raikkonen and that of his predecessor Michael Schumacher. There is no doubt, not a bit, that Michael took preparation in F1 to heights never attempted by anyone before, and it is questionable whether anyone will take things to the same extreme again in the future. Raikkonen, we are told, is a vodka loving party animal who ‘listens to no-one’ and is not that great at setting up a car. We are presented with the image of a man who turns up, with disregard for the protocols that have gone before, and simply drives the car as fast as it can go.
Much of this must be taken with a large pinch of salt. This is the 21st century, and Formula One cars of the present era demand exceptional fitness from the driver whoever he may be. If that level of fitness is not there, the results will not come. We know that Raikkonen can produce results.
As for his level of set-up ability, we have all heard the stories of how he turned up at Sauber, pinched Heidfelds settings, and went quicker. But are they true? Whatever the case Raikkonen, and Ferrari, go into the new season as perceived favourites, with the promise of ‘equal footing’ for both him and team mate Felipe Massa from the word go. Massa, I believe, will be occasionally excellent, but will be surprised by the pace of Raikkonen. Many, however, believe the Brazilian has turned a corner and will give Kimi a run for his money.
Renault will win races, unless something goes very wrong. This gives rise to the belief that Fisichella, or even Kovalainen, should mount a challenge for the title.
Question marks remain though, and in abundance. We have covered Kovalainens problem – that of inexperience in F1 races – and touched on that of Fisichella, yet the Italian remains a true enigma in many ways. Blisteringly fast when things go right, fabulously smooth, and a proven winner to boot, Giancarlo still fell too far behind the performance of Alonso in the last two seasons.
With Alonso out of the way it remains to be seen whether Fisichella can raise his game and come up with the race by race consistency that is required to mount a title challenge, or if the youngster along side him will show him the way, and the F1 door in the process. Giancarlo, then, goes onto the ‘last chance’ list.
Mclaren enter a season with an all new driver line up for the first time in a number of years, having endured their first winless season for a number, too. It will help that the incumbent team leader is Fernando Alonso, the man rapidly assuming the mantle of best of the current crop along with his two world titles.
This is a team that, it has to be said, needs to make great improvements over the winter if it is to catch, or pass, the two front runners of last year, and stave off the challenge that is gaining ground from the east behind.
There is no ‘name’ designer at McLaren – no Adrian Newey or Geoff Willis – and a feeling that this is a team, much like its UK counterpart Williams that has lost its way a little recently. That is to forget, however, that the team won ten races in 2005, and will be focused on tomorrow as it enters a new era of its own.
Never underestimate Mclaren, then, but never underestimate how hard it is to win in F1 these days. Like Renault, the driver pairing features one new to the game, but also features one who, seemingly, has no more to learn.
So, that’s the top three – Renault, Ferrari, and Mclaren. Or is it?
An interesting statistic from 2006 is that Jenson Button, in the Honda, scored more points than all bar Michael Schumacher in the last seven races of the season.
The improvement at the Japanese team between the beginning and the end of the season was quite notable indeed. Although the speed was there from the beginning, the reliability and team co-operation improved considerably in the second half of the year, with the highlight that memorable win in Hungary.
Button is driving as well as ever, but the same can not be said with certainty about team-mate Rubens Barrichello. It still seems odd when I refer to Barrichello as a ‘veteran’ but the label is true – he has been around as long as anyone else bar Coulthard.
If the car is good, and there are indications it could be, one would expect Barrichello to challenge Button for podiums, but if there are problems to overcome the ability of either driver to rise to the occasion still has to be brought into question. Does Rubens qualify to join Fisichella on our list? This season will tell.
Needless to say, one day Honda will get it right, and when they do they will be difficult to beat.
It is hard, if not impossible, to see any but those four challenging for victories in 2007. Challenges may come from other quarters, although it would take great leaps in performance and consistency for any team do mount a serious season long challenge.
BMW-Sauber did a fine job in 2006 to finish fifth in the constructors table, and there is every chance they will improve further in the coming year. Nick Heidfeld is a solid, fast and remarkably error-free driver who appears to have been given a welcome boost by the arrival of young star-to-be Robert Kubica, and both drivers should produce results where the machinery allows.
The facilities at Hinwil are exceptional, and being improved, and the team personnel top notch, but this remains a young team with a long term plan, not one that is going to challenge the mighty next season.
Traditionally new teams experience a ‘difficult’ second year, and things may be no different for Mario Theissens outfit. Winter testing has already highlighted an electronics glitch, and the team (in particular Kubica) appear to be suffering more than most from the switch to Bridgestone ‘control’ tyres.
This could be a trying time for all at this enterprising outfit and, with young Sebastian Vettel waiting in the wings a testing one for Heidfeld in particular. The German could be another on the list.
It is difficult to decide where to begin with regard to Toyota. Recently I read a description that labelled the Japanese giants the ‘most anonymous team in the pit lane’ and I have to agree.
The team from Cologne represent the epitome of corporate blandness, right down to the results so far. One would imagine that both Jarno Trulli and Ralf Schumacher envisaged great things when each moved to the budget-heavy outfit, and both must be wondering where it all went wrong, as we all are.
The team presents a faceless and characterless front that seems completely at odds with a current pit lane ethic where the flamboyance of Briatore, the wit and freshness of Red Bull and the fanaticism of Ferrari prevail, and it can not be just by chance that Toyota have blended into the background in the past couple of seasons.
It may pay to be merely purposeful and unexciting in the production of millions of ‘rep-mobiles’ but F1 demands a different approach.
There is little wrong with the driver pairing over all – both can be absolutely with it one race, and utterly invisible the next – but something has to change if this team are to make the advances that they are, in theory, capable of.
The upside is that, after such a barren period, no-one is expecting that to happen hence if, or more likely when it does it will rock the establishment. Toyota, quite simply, have to start winning, and at all costs. Otherwise, Jarno and Ralf will be firmly on the list.
The aforementioned Red Bull go into 2007 with the promise of great things – an Adrian Newey penned chassis, a Renault engine, and a driver line up that delivers experience and speed in the shape of David Coulthard and Mark Webber.
The energy drink manufacturers team has brought new life into the paddock with it’s penchant for Hollywood tie-ins and its innovative approach to the sport via the ground-breaking ‘Red Bulletin’ newspaper, but we still have to ask – will they deliver?
There is no doubt that having an engineer of Neweys undoubted calibre on board will help the cause, but many believe the days of ‘star designers’ making a front running car are long gone. The Renault engine can only be a plus.
As for the drivers, Red Bull appear to have all but abandoned the much-touted driver development programme with the jettisoning of Christian Klien in favour of Mark Webber. Both drivers are quick, no doubt, and both are capable of bringing in the points, but there is a mountain to climb if they are to reach the level of the front running teams. This could be the most interesting team to watch in 2007.
To find Williams this far down in a season preview is an indication of just how far this once great team have fallen of late. It must be said at this point, however, that things are nowhere near as bleak as they could have been, which in itself is an indication of the high regard that Frank Williams and co still garner, and deserve, in F1 circles.
A new partnership with Toyota, major sponsorship deals from AT&T and Philips, an influx of technical staff from the likes of Renault and Mclaren to bolster the already substantial workforce, and an internal shake up the way the team works promise to help put ‘Team Willy’ back on the right track.
As for the drivers, Nico Rosberg, despite his mediocre season overall, showed signs of promise and talent and heads into his second season with the stigma of his rookie season well and truly in the past, and Alexander Wurz returns to racing after a long break testing for both Williams and Mclaren.
The Austrian is perhaps the most interesting of the additions to the 2007 grid, with experience at top teams and many races behind him. He comes highly rated by those who worked with him at both teams, and Benetton before that, and it will be interesting indeed to follow the likeable Wurz’s progress through the season.
So to the back of the grid, and the three teams we expect, on prior form, to occupy the last three rows more often than not.
Expectation may be tempered with uncertainty, however, as all three teams – Super Aguri, Spyker MF1 and Scuderia Toro Rosso – feature changes of sorts for the upcoming campaign.
Dealing with Super Aguri first, Aguri Suzuki’s unlikely 2006 entrants entranced the entire pit lane with their truly remarkable progress during the past season, in which they began with a modified four year old Arrows, and ended with a tenth place and race lap times in the top ten.
To get the cars on track for the first race was a trial beyond belief, and that they achieved it was enough for congratulation, but to improve by such degrees was unexpected, and the team fully deserved the bottles of champagne that the Renault pit crew delivered to their garage after the final race!
A storm is brewing, however, over the issue of ‘chassis sharing’, and it is a storm that is due to rage until we reach Australia, with such as Mario Theissen promising the issue could end up in the courts should Aguri, and Toro Rosso, continue with their plan to run a modified Honda and Red Bull respectively.
The legal issues are not clear cut – Toro Rosso ran this season with what was clearly a year old Red Bull – but the row is not what F1 needs right now. Suggestions have included the teams forfeiting points – and therefore FIA money – but both outfits have indicated their intention to ‘build their own car’. How far these cars will be ‘their own’ is open to interpretation.
It would be a shame should this row overshadow the outset of Super Aguri’s season, and Takuma Sato appears to have laid to rest the ghost of his erratic ways at the works Honda team, his performances in 2006 on the whole as good as they could be in the machinery, and the addition of Anthony Davidson, another on the ‘last chance’ list, in place of the obligatory Japanese second driver is a sensible and profitable move. I expect some points scoring runs from these two creditable drivers – after all, the RA106 was a decent chassis, with a fine engine.
Toro Rosso, the second team at the centre of the row, have yet to announce their driver pairing for next season – a further indication that the Red Bull School is failing in its ambitions.
There are some who believe the new car will be nothing other than an RB3 with a Ferrari engine, but it is more likely – given the time involved – that it will be ‘their own’ design or, in other words, an RB2.
Vitantonio Liuzzi is highly regarded by many in the F1 world, which begs questions regarding Scott Speed. The American was easily as good as his Italian team mate in 2006, although neither can be said to have set the world alight, and given the teams insistence on running the likes of Sebastian Bourdais in winter tests it is no wonder even Liuzzi has expressed insecurity over his drive in 2007.
Much talk has been made of Bourdais, along with the recently usurped at Spyker Tiago Monteiro, Robert Doornbos and Williams tester Narain Karthikeyan being in contention for the drive, but it is looking ever more likely that Liuzzi and Speed will retain their drives for the coming season.
F1 needs teams like Toro Rosso – purveyors of the funniest and most readable Press Releases in the paddock – and co-owner Gerhard Berger and, though the team should be around a while, it remains to be seen whether Liuzzi and Speed are destined for that ‘last chance’ list.
And finally, Spyker. Ferrari engines for the old Midland/Jordan equipe, and Mike Gascoyne in the mix, look like good moves on paper – not testing at all so far, or for the foreseeable future, a major worry.
An F1 team has to hit the ground running, not play catch-up from race one. It is difficult to see what Spyker can gain from not participating in the winter running, as any miles at all must be a benefit. The back of the grid beckons again, and the spectre of a team that simply can’t be taken seriously raises its ugly head.
Christijan Albers is a good driver, and brings much Dutch backing, and Adrian Sutil a future star, but the two will do well to pick up the crumbs in 2007. Lets hope that I am wrong, and Colin Kolles and the Spyker Cars board are in this for the long run.
Well, that’s 2007 for you. We are faced with legal wrangles – a feature of F1 far too prevalent these days – even before the season begins. We are looking forward to twenty two cars running on ‘difficult’ Bridgestone tyres.
We are entering a period dictated by ‘frozen’ engines and seamless gearboxes, and we are on the verge of welcoming the ‘new’ generation of F1 stars.
I don’t believe that things will run smoothly in 2007; I foresee arguments over the tyre compounds, and the probable introduction of the ‘red tyre’ rule, as well as concerns regarding the ‘reliability only’ development clause that promises to offer a loophole in the homologation rule.
On the plus side, the driver and team changes can only be to our benefit as we follow Alonso and Raikkonen on their chosen new paths, and Kovalainen and Hamilton as they die into the deep end.
2007, more than any season of late, could throw up surprises like no other. Lets roll.
Written by Steve Turnbull on Wed, 03 Jan 2007 13:27:56
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