Driver market musings

As we approach the traditional silly season musical chairs session that is the Italian Grand Prix at Monza we are still unsure of who goes where. This is, in truth, somewhat unusual as many deals are generally signed, sealed and delivered – and in the open – by now.

This year is different, for certain circumstances have dictated that the 2010 grid will remain a mystery for longer than is usual: the squabbling earlier in the season and accompanying breakaway threat left drivers wondering which series they would be racing in, never mind which team; the appearance of apparent new teams – Campos, Manor and USF1 – plus the subsequent re-opening of the entry process in the light of the BMW-Sauber withdrawal has shaken up the order somewhat; the accident which befell Felipe Massa has led to confusion at Ferrari which, if you believe all the stories (and more of that later) now has more drivers under contract for 2010 than it has cars for.

All of these have contributed to a prolonged wait for those who are out of contract and on the merry-go-round and, as of the time of writing, only one team – Red Bull Racing – has confirmed its driver line up (the same as this year, Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber) for 2010.

This is not strictly true, however, for should you ask any of the top brass at Ferrari who their drivers will be in 2010 they will trot out the same old story – Kimi Raikkonen and the recovering Felipe Massa both have contracts with the Scuderia for 2010, and Giancarlo Fisichella is the newly signed reserve driver.

Let’s dwell on the situation at Maranello for a little longer, for this is a jigsaw puzzle that is not missing the final piece, but conversely has one piece – at least too many.

Disregard Michael Schumacher as while his much touted comeback – aborted, sadly – was one of the stories of the year it is quite clear now that there is no intention of him returning to the fold; all talk of third cars from Ferrari bigwigs must also be disregarded, as not only will there be no room for them but other teams – Williams notably – have made it quite clear they would not agree to such a revision of the regulations.

Talk turns, then, to the teams’ two drivers – Raikkonen and Massa, and to one other – Fernando Alonso. Much has been made on forums and in the press about Alonso driving for Ferrari in 2010. Indeed, there is a belief that he signed some form or pre-contract upon leaving McLaren, but was restricted from racing for them for a set period. It is no secret in F1 circles that Alonso and Ferrari are destined to come together at some point – the upcoming confirmation of the major Santander sponsorship deal is another pointer to this – but the question remains as to when he will join. Not enough seats, you see, as Raikkonen and Massa are contracted.

A couple of races back Martin Whitmarsh – team principal of McLaren-Mercedes – spoke of the Alonso to Ferrari story, live on the BBC, as if it were a done deal. Many questioned how he would know. Here’s how: Steve Robertson, Kimi Raikkonen’s manager, knocks on his door asking if there might be a drive for the Finn at McLaren in 2010. It’s quite simple: F1 is an insular, almost incestuous family of people, and if anyone is to know who is on the market it is the team principals and their fellow men. We should conclude, then, that Raikkonen is looking for job for next year.

Hold on, though, for there is a potential problem here: on 21st September – two weeks away as I write – Renault faces charges of race fixing at the Singapore Grand Prix last year (we will spare the details for they are well known) at an extraordinary meeting of the World Motor Sport Council. There are two schools of thought – one, that the recently sacked Nelson Piquet Jnr is a bitter man who has made it all up out of spite, and two, that the recently sacked Nelson Piquet Jnr has chosen to spill the beans out of spite, and it is true. The fact that a meeting has been called suggests that something, somewhere, is out of the ordinary, but surely asking one driver to crash so another wins (and in a convoluted string of chance, too) is out of the question?

We shall not dwell on that here, but merely put the question: what if Renault is found guilty of the crime? Who was involved and who knew about it? What penalty would they receive and, more to the point for our driver merry go round, was Alonso aware and, therefore, implicitly involved?

Again, we can only speculate and wait for the details (should we be made party to them) but the fact remains that serious sanctions – presumably on both team and drivers – would be a prerequisite result of a guilty verdict, which leaves Alonso’s 2010 participation on somewhat dodgy grounds.

Raikkonen’s situation, therefore, could well be about to change and we need to actually see Massa back in action before we can be sure he will be a permanent fixture for 2010; we can, however, be almost certain that Alonso is supposed to be driving for Ferrari in 2010, and the general consensus is that he will line up alongside Massa. Let’s assume, then, for the sake of our analysis (well, wild prediction is a more accurate description) that the Ferrari line up will be Alonso and Massa, and – for the record – that Renault is allowed to compete in 2010.

We should consider the plight of McLaren next, for I – and many others – consider it unlikely that Heikki Kovalainen will be kept on; recent comments by Whitmarsh that he has been told to ‘up his game’ leave him with little time, and the market is awash – so it seems – with potential replacements. Kovalainen is a good driver – on occasions a very good one – but he is very much in the shadow of Lewis Hamilton. I suspect that should he find himself in a team with a less dominant ‘lead’ driver he would rise to the occasion.

Replacements for Kovalainen should come from a select few: the already mentioned Raikkonen is a possibility, although his past term with the team ended on a less than savoury note, and the favourite is Nico Rosberg who is widely expected to depart the Williams team and who has also been driving very well this season. The out of work BMW-Sauber drivers Robert Kubica and Nick Heidfeld should also be considered, and while I consider the latter and outside bet the former is linked strongly to Renault, where there is a very strong chance he will line up alongside Romain Grosjean.

It is the general consensus that Rosberg is the McLaren – and Mercedes – choice; he is young, good looking, fluent in many languages and a PR dream and, as such, fits the McLaren ethic to a fine degree. He’s also German, something Mercedes can use to great effect.

Renault, I believe, will feature the pairing above, but I call into question the Pole’s ability to ‘lead a team’. Frequently at BMW-Sauber there have been quiet stories of him being difficult to work with and becoming despondent when things don’t go his way; perhaps at Renault he will find a team that treats him as a true number one and, in effect, pampers him, and his obvious and often quite startling outright pace and ability will come to the fore.

That’s Renault, McLaren and Ferrari taken care of, and we know what is happening at Red Bull, but what of the other championship contender, the upstarts Brawn GP?

Ross and Co have apparently secured major backing for the next three years and – if current stories are true – are about to be party to a buy-in from none other than Mercedes Benz. How this deal will work is anyone’s guess, but the paddock consensus is that it is about to happen, a curious move at a time when manufacturers are leaving rather than buying in.

There is a curious and potentially very interesting subtext to all of this, and like many rumours and possibilities around at the moment it involves Raikkonen. Say Mercedes wants the Finn back under its wing, and he’s not ready to settle for a Force India driver – what better move than to place him at Brawn, alongside Jenson Button? This, of course, leaves Rubens Barrichello – a man who currently has the legs of his title leading team mate and is eating into the gap – out of a drive, but that almost happened this time last year anyhow.

I see it as a very strong possibility and am going to include Button and Raikkonen at Brawn as one of the 2010 grid slots. Williams, then; what of the popular team for 2010?

There are two things happening at Williams this off-season: they are losing Nico Rosberg and they are changing engine supplier. The story goes that Williams has asked Toyota for an early release and that Toyota has agreed, and while early stories pointed to a Renault supply – with Red Bull said to be looking to switch to Mercedes power – the story now is that RB will remain with Renault and that Williams will become Mercedes Benz powered. This leaves Toyota protégé Kazuki Nakajima high and dry as while the Japanese has done a competent job he is unlikely to be retained without the parent company having an influence. Two seats at Williams, then, and Mercedes engines.

Who better to bring in than one of the teams prior drivers, a man they admitted to being somewhat in love with and reluctant to let go – Nick Heidfeld who as we have seen is a man without a seat next year. While not seen as an out and out team leader Heidfeld fitted in at Williams very well indeed and never failed to impress the team with his doggedness in the face of adversity and, furthermore, he brings the car home in one piece. He has regularly outperformed the highly rated Kubica this year, and makes great sense for Sir Franks team. He will, I believe, line up alongside new boy Nico Hulkenberg who the team have an option on.

Back to Toyota, and while the team is adamant it is remaining there are said to be major budget cuts coming for next year; Jarno Trulli looks to be out of a drive and the logical thing is for the team to keep Timo Glock and bring back Nakajima. Hardly a hot shot pairing – although both quick – and it remains to be seen whether the board signs off the budget in November.

STR will likely keep Jaime Alguersuari and Sebastien Buemi – hardly inspirational – and Adrian Sutil looks to be settled at Force India with the incoming Tonio Liuzzi, and as for the new teams all we know is that Pedro de la Rosa and Alexander Wurz are in great demand. Let’s hope, too, that Barrichello – should he be ousted – and Trulli are also considered for both still have much to offer.

That’s my view on the coming musical chairs episode – what’s yours?



Written by 3 on Wed, 09 Sep 2009 09:35:04