The annual ‘silly season’, that high value merry-go-round that follows in the weeks after the final race, and precede the winter testing season, is as much a part of Formula One in the 21st century as are the races themselves.
This year, the musical chairs are more plentiful than usual, for there is one name that could control the destiny of a number of drivers throughout the field – Fernando Alonso, of course, is very likely on the move.
There is, it must be said, a chance – perhaps a merest glimmer of hope – that Mclaren-Mercedes and the Spanish double champion will sort out their differences in the coming days, but realistically we are expecting an announcement confirming a parting of ways before the month of November is half gone.
Let us, with that in mind, have a look at the situation as it stands, and see if we can sort out the unlikely rumour from the probable result.
Some things we know for certain – Ralf Schumacher has driven his last race for Toyota, and Alex Wurz resigned from driving duties at Williams prior to the Brazilian Grand Prix. That gives us two seats to fill, to start with.
What about those driver/team combinations that are ‘confirmed’ for the 2008 season?
From the bottom up:
Adrian Sutil insists he has a ‘long term contract’ with Spyker, now known as Force India. Given the Germans obvious talent, we can consider him an asset to a team that are likely to be at the back of the financial grid, rather than a dead-cert for a drive there in 2008. Teams interested in Sutil – as the stories go – number, well, just about everyone, to be honest.
Super Aguri have made no noises at all about their 2008 plans, and there have been rumours of both imminent financial collapse and promising buy-out or buy in proposals for the Honda satellite. With no confirmation of either Takuma Sato (expected to stay for 2008 – he is, after all, one reason the team exists) and Anthony Davidson (very promising this year, but up against a raft of talented youngsters) forthcoming this is perhaps the most difficult of the independent teams to call.
Honda, that is the works Honda Racing team, has both Jenson Button and Rubens Barrichello on contract for 2008. With rumours continuing that the Brazilian may take the retirement option, and Buttons name cropping up with lucrative drives elsewhere, we will come back to them a little later on.
Scuderia Toro Rosso are one of only a few teams with a truly confirmed line up – Sebastian Vettel, the young German who replaced Scott Speed for the latter half of the season, has impressed greatly and is staying on, and the team have multiple Champ Car winner and token Frenchman Sebastien Bourdais on his way to F1 for 2008. Bear in mind, though, that Vettel has been mentioned in connection with drives elsewhere, although is expected to stay at STR.
Toyota has, as we already pointed out, shed Ralf Schumacher, but retains Jarno Trulli. Or do they? The Italians name has been mentioned in connection with a test at Force India this winter – although so has just about every other driver in Formula One. Still, there are stories that Toyota may look to off-load Trulli and go for a new line up, and these can not be discounted until the party gets going. Again, we’ll return here later.
Red Bull is also, apparently, set for 2008 with Mark Webber and David Coulthard staying on board. There has been speculation here, though, that the Australian may be in line for a change of scenery, and we shall – as above – return further on.
Of the top five teams, one is almost certainly set to remain the same – BMW-Sauber, who have Nick Heidfeld and Robert Kubica on board for next year – but of the rest, nothing is close to certain.
Staring with Williams, with Wurz gone there is one seat available, and although Kazuki Nakajima did a very good job in difficult circumstances on his only outing in Brazil, he is far from a shoe-in for the drive. Nico Rosberg insists he is staying on, as do the team, but there may be bargaining chips at play here, as we shall see.
Renault are set for change in at least one car, and very possibly too, as both Giancarlo Fisichella and the much improved and impressive Heikki Kovalainen are out of contract at seasons end, and Nelson Piquet Jnr is waiting in the wings for his chance.
Ferrari have recently announced Felipe Massa as continuing alongside Kimi Raikkonen, and Mclaren are yet to give any indications as to what will happen with key player Alonso, although we know that Lewis Hamilton is firmly ensconced.
So, where do we begin to join up the dots, tie up the loose ends?
It is, of course, a difficult question to answer, as to do so we must start with the driver who is the subject of the most speculation – Fernando Alonso.
For the sake of this picture we shall assume that the Spaniard will leave Mclaren, as is thought almost certain, and have a look at some of the possible scenarios that have been propounded in the press over recent weeks.
First, the big question – will he go to Ferrari? Many well-versed writers have insisted that there is, already, an agreement in place for the ex-Champion to move to Maranello, but the recent announcement of Massa’s continuing presence points to that being for 2009, at the earliest. Taking this as true, as reliable sources have insisted, we find Alonso on the market for one year, and one year only.
Who would be interested in taking a driver – any driver, let alone Alonso – knowing it was simply passing time before moving on to Ferrari?
That is somewhat unfair to Alonso in a way, as Fernando is a racing driver to the core, and will give his very best for anyone, but does raise complications for the other parties involved. Also, we have to factor in the situation in which Alonso finds himself – needing to extricate himself from a multi year Mclaren contract at the least possible cost.
This will not be easy, as those close to Mclaren have intimated that the team clearly hold the upper hand in these negotiations, hence Alonso will come at a price to whoever opts to take him. The shortlist, it seems, is as follows:
Renault, Red Bull, BMW, Williams and Toyota.
The latter team have apparently already laid a multi-year lucrative deal on the table, and seen it rejected, hence we can scratch Toyota. BMW are unlikely to see fit to change either driver as they are moving forward as a team very nicely thank you, so Hinwil is an unlikely destination. And then there were three.
Of the three, the most likely seemed to be Renault initially, but we are hearing from various angles that talks are not going very well with Alonso’s old outfit, and the chance of them taking him for a year is unlikely in the circumstances.
So it would seem to be between Red Bull, and Williams.
Both are more feasible than would at first appear, and both offer potentially interesting packages in return for taking Alonso off Mclarens hand – namely Mark Webber, and Nico Rosberg.
Webber is considered very much a dark horse for the Mclaren drive, but could be just the driver they are looking for – he’s undoubtedly quick, no nonsense, a good race and a hard trying driver. Rosberg, on the other hand, could be exactly what Mclaren are not only looking for, but actively want.
At this point we must not rule out Heikki Kovalainen, the young Finn having been thought a sure fire favourite for a straight swap before the Renault-Alonso negotiations were reported to have faltered, and we must still not rule him out, but it does seem to me that Rosberg, and Webber, may be better options, both having the advantage of extra seasons over the still sometimes erratic Kovalainen.
While Rosberg may be Mclarens newcomer, Alonso would be welcomed at Williams with open arms, and would find himself in a team that loves racers. He would fit in well, even if just for a year, and the situation looks more and more tenable the more often I consider it.
I am, then, going to stick my neck out and say that Alonso will go to Williams for a year, in a swap & cash deal with Rosberg, before heading off to Maranello in 2009.
Once this is announced, Renault will make the sensible decision to keep hold of Kovalainen, with Fisichella making way for Piquet Jnr to slot into the seat he has been groomed for.
That, then, is Ferrari, Renault, and BMW sorted, with a seat still left at Williams.
And before we go any further, let us sort out that one. Here are the likely candidates, as the grapevine says:
Liuzzi, Sutil, Nakajima and Fisichella.
With space being cleared at Toyota, it would not come as a surprise if the parent company claim back their Japanese protégé Kazuki, and it must be considered whether Fisichella has had his best chance in F1.
Therefore, the choice is between Liuzzi – a driver who may well be under-rated, and is known to be fancied by Williams, and future star Sutil. It is, as is clear, a difficult decision, but as I am committed to doing so, here is my choice – Sutil will get the nod, and Liuzzi will be offered a testing role with a view to a future drive.
With both Red Bull teams set in stone, then, we come back to the big Japanese outfits, struggling to find their pace and make their place.
Toyota will, ultimately, opt to keep Trulli, and run Nakajima alongside him, while Button will continue at Honda. Barrichello, too, will stay on, but seems undecided at the moment – if he should choose to walk away, he will be replaced by Anthony Davidson.
Super Aguri I can not take a punt on, other than to say that should they continue in the game Sato will be there, and will probably be joined by a Honda protégé – Conway, perhaps, or another of the GP2 drivers scheduled to test.
And Force India? Well, it would make sense, and a fairy tale beginning, for Narain Karthikeyan to pitch up there but, sadly, I don’t see it happening. Mr Mallya may well give his friend Ralf Schumacher a final fling in the Ferrari engined machine, and will look to the roster of junior league drivers to compliment the experienced German.
Those of you asking why I have not brought Prodrive into the equation – at the time of writing it looks very unlikely that Dave Richard’s outfit will be on the grid in 2008. If they are, then Pedro de la Rosa and AN Other will take on the task.
So there we have it, my own interpretation of the shape of things to come, with help from the myriad of rumour, stories and very possibly inventions that do the rounds at this time of year.
Take it on board, disseminate and disassemble, but remember the one important factor in all of this – the wheels will not turn until Alonso and Mclaren come to an agreement.
Written by Steve Turnbull on Tue, 30 Oct 2007 15:56:40
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