The end of the testing season is upon us – only Williams and McLaren are still in action at Jerez as I write this – and analysis of the past few weeks’ action reveals some interesting pointers to the status quo.
Of course, many will shrug shoulders and point to the fact that we have no idea of programmes, fuel loads, development rates and more, and the influence such things may have had on testing results, but there are some certainties that we can draw from the winter.
The first is the rather startling realisation that the Brawn BGP001 – the car formerly known as a Honda – is very fast indeed. Looking back I can’t recall a winter when one car has caused such upset, and stories of super-light ‘sponsor-grabbing’ laps must be put to bed when one considers the very impressive long run times the car showed in the hands of Rubens Barrichello and Jenson Button. Furthermore, this is Ross Brawn we’re talking about, and he’s a very shrewd mover indeed.
In truth we should not be so amazed by the potential of the car, as it has been in development for longer than any other. Ferrari and Mclaren have both made noises to the effect that they had to continue development right up to the last minute of the 2008 season, while the likes of Honda – now Brawn – and BMW, plus Williams and Toyota, were already well into their 2009 programme.
Sandbagging aside – and it does happen – it is the accepted belief among F1 folk that neither the McLaren nor the Ferrari are ready for the fight; the latter has performed notably better than the silver machine, but has not set the world alight. On the other hand, few have seen optimism such as that being displayed by the entire Toyota team, and the TF109 has performed very well in all tests this winter.
The interesting talk of the moment surrounds rear diffusers: Toyota, Williams and Brawn have all famously interpreted the rules in a different way to the rest. Murmurings of the designs – named ‘double decker’ versions as they make use of greater height – being ‘not within the spirit of the regulations’ are plentiful; however, this is nonsense, as if the designs are within the regulatory boundaries set down in the rules then the spirit of the thing is irrelevant. If it’s legal, it’s legal – end of story.
Sadly, we are almost certain to be looking at a protest – or plural – over the Melbourne weekend, as the legality of cars can not be attested to in test sessions, only on race weekends. If clarification is needed, and indeed if it is given, we can expect a major redesign of the rival machines by the time we return to Europe.
BMW have been interesting this winter: quick out of the box, the F1.09 has remained little changed, unlike much of the remainder of the field. This signifies either total confidence or an inability to build on the design – the former is preferred. The white cars have been quick on occasions, but one gets the feeling that the Hinwil outfit has yet to show its hand.
Williams have also had a curious winter season; another that was very fast on first appearance, the FW31 has been to the fore in some tests (indeed, today - Thursday – Kazuki Nakajima lowered the Jerez bar to a low 1:17 lap!) and not in others, yet there is an air of quiet confidence in the camp.
Red Bull, and sister team STR, have what many consider to be the most neatly packaged design, yet it has not shown particularly strongly overall and driver Mark Webber has commented that he expects the team to be fighting in the midfield come Melbourne.
Force India enters a new era via a liaison with McLaren-Mercedes, and the car has looked pretty decent on the limited testing it has had. We shouldn’t expect it to blitz the field, but it may well be a major step forward for this ambitious little team.
The enigma that is Renault continues to confuse; quite clearly there was a problem with the R29 on first introduction, yet as time goes on the car appears quicker and quicker. Given that Fernando Alonso is perhaps the greatest driver in f1 at the moment, it would be no surprise to see the French outfit running at the front early in the season.
As for the season, the over-riding talk of the past few days has been of the new scoring system. The driver with the most wins will be World Champion, something that many of us see as just, and an equal number are disgusted with. It’s controversial, yes, but surely a step in the right direction.
So, the big question: who will win in Melbourne? It’s difficult to answer, as usual, as no one team has shown to be the best prepared – with the possible exception of the amazing Brawn. I would be willing to venture this, however – a McLaren will not win the first race, barring exceptional circumstances. My suggestion is that the winner will come from either Toyota or BMW, but then it could be Brawn. Or it might be Renault, and then there’s……you see the problem?
Roll on Melbourne!
Written by 3 on Thu, 19 Mar 2009 13:04:25
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